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Summary
(Not for release before 3 December 2002)
Long-term demographic and economic
data from 45 developing countries show that high fertility
increases poverty by slowing economic growth and by
skewing the distribution of consumption against the
poor.
Enabling women to have smaller families—by reducing
mortality, increasing education and improving access to
reproductive health and family planning—counters both of
these effects. The national effects on poverty reduction are
clear from both average gross domestic product (GDP)
increase and consumption figures.
The average poverty incidence in 1980 was 18.9 per cent,
about one in every five people. Had all countries reduced net
fertility by 5 per thousand during the 1980s, as many Asian
countries did, poverty incidence would have been reduced to
12.6 per cent, or one in eight.
Smaller families have fewer expenses and more
opportunities to increase their income and savings, leading
to increased consumption. Half of the improvement in
population-related economic growth has come from taking
advantage of the “demographic window”, the other half
from shifting economic consumption towards the poor. The
impacts can be considerable. A fall of 4 per thousand in
the net birth rate, for example, would translate into a 2.4
per cent decline in those living in absolute poverty in the
next decade.
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