1 Paes de Barros, R., et al. 2001. "Demographic
Changes and Poverty in Brazil." Ch. 11 in:
Population Matters: Demographic Change,
Economic Growth, and Poverty in the
Developing World, edited by N. Birdsall, A. C.
Kelley, and S. W. Sinding. 2001. Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
2. There are offsetting effects. A larger population
contributes to a larger pool of creative
resources. Pressure on natural resources and
narrowing opportunities can encourage innovation
such as new technologies to produce
more food or conserve fuel. But investment is
needed to exploit the "human resource".
These arguments were developed by Julian
Simon and others. See especially: Simon, J.
1981. The Ultimate Resource. Princeton, New
Jersey: Princeton University Press.
3. The summary that follows is necessarily
truncated. More extended discussions of the
development of policy and science can be
found in a large number of sources. Of particular
value are: Bloom, D. E., D. Canning,
and J. Sevilla. 2002. Demographic Change
and Economic Growth: The Importance
of Age Structure. Santa Monica, California:
RAND Corporation; Seltzer, J. 2002. The
Origins and Evolution of Family Planning
Programs in Developing Countries. Santa
Monica, California: RAND Corporation;
Cassen, R. 1994. Population and Development:
Old Debates, New Conclusions. New Brunswick,
New Jersey, and Oxford: Transaction
Publishers; and Lassonde, L. 1996. Coping
with Population Challenges. London:
4. National Research Council. 1986. Population
Growth and Economic Development:
Policy Questions. Washington D.C.: National
5. Demographers use these ages by convention.
In contemporary society the start of
employment and formal retirement are both
later in life, but the change does not affect
6. External financial shocks and failure of
regulatory frameworks led to the 1997-1998
economic catastrophe. Rapid recovery since
then, although held back by continuing
external problems, shows the value of the
earlier demographic and social changes.
The collapse hit the poor hardest and they
continue to bear the brunt.
7. Some countries have reached fertility rates
of 3 children or lower (e.g., Algeria, Turkey
and Lebanon; Iran and Kazakhstan have
reached replacement levels around 2.1) but
most are higher (many above 4, including
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Sudan, Jordan,
Kuwait, Syria and the United Arab Emirates,
and several above 5, including, in increasing
order, Saudi Arabia, the Occupied Palestinian
Territory, Yemen and Oman).
8. See, for example: Pearson, A. 22 May 2002.
"Let's Talk about the Facts of Life." London
Evening Standard, which asserts that
"Britons are on the road to extinction" due
to low fertility.
9. A discussion can be found in: UNFPA. 1998.
State of World Population 1998: The
New Generations, ch. 3. New York: UNFPA.
10. Sachs, J. D., and D. E. Bloom (eds.). 1997.
Emerging Asia: Changes and Challenges.
Manila: Asian Development Bank.
11. Fears about the decline of housing markets,
just to name one example (see: Wattenberg,
B. J. 27 November 1997. "The Population
Explosion is Over." The New York Times
Magazine.), assume that only younger
populations at the age of first or early home
acquisition can determine the quantity
of demand. The market for replacement or
upgrading of earlier housing stock can
play an increasing role in overall demand.
12. These effects are elaborated in: Eastwood,
R., and M. Lipton. 1999."The Impact of
Changes in Human Fertility on Poverty." The
Journal of Development Studies 36(1):
1-30; and Eastwood, R., and M. Lipton. 2001.
"Demographic Transition and Poverty:
Effects via Economic Growth, Distribution
and Conversion." Ch. 9 in: Birdsall, Kelley,
and Sinding 2001.
13. Paes de Barros, et al. 2001.
14. The Millennium Development Goal of poverty
reduction is expressed in terms of the
incidence (the numbers of the poor), not the
severity of poverty (or how poor they are).
The effects of the redistribution of income
(including those produced by demographic
effects that lower wage rates) can markedly
affect the incidence of poverty even when
they do not alter its severity. If income flows
from the near-poor to the rich, the incidence
is unchanged but the intensity increases.
15. See: Eastwood and Lipton 1999, p. 13.
16. See citations in: Eastwood and Lipton 2001.
17. Descriptions of effects and citations can be
found in: Eastwood and Lipton 2001.
18. This argument is most clearly developed in:
Merrick, T. 2001. "Population and Poverty
in Households: A Review of Reviews." Ch. 8
in: Birdsall, Kelley, and Sinding 2001.