N O T E S
CHAPTER 2
1. The statistics reported in this section
represent shares of the 114 countries that responded to the UNFPA survey whose results are
presented in: UNFPA. 1999. Report of the 1998 UNFPA Field Inquiry: Progress in the
Implementation of the ICPD Programme of Action. New York: UNFPA.
2. Some of the longest established population
policies and programmes are found in Asia. India, for example, which had a long tradition
of censuses and record-taking, can date its concern with population issues back to the
mid-1950s. Like other countries with long-established policies, it was necessary to update
the policies, strategies and institutional frameworks to be consistent with the principles
of the Programme of Action. Other countries with less established policy frameworks have
created policies that reflect recent population and development concerns.
3. United Nations.
1998a. World Population Prospects (The 1998 Revision). New
York: United Nations.
4. The demographic transition
was first described by Frank Notestein (see: Notestein, Frank. 1953. "Economic
Problems of Population Change." In Proceedings of the Eighth International
Conference of Agricultural Economists, pp. 13-31. London: Oxford University Press.).
He theorized that traditional agricultural societies needed high fertility to offset high
mortality rates; that urbanization, industrialization, education, and the accompanying
economic and social change caused a decline in deaths, particularly infant mortality
rates; and that fertility then fell as children became more expensive and less valuable in
economic terms.
5. Two of the best known such studies are: Coale,
Ansley J., and Susan Cotts Watkins (eds.). 1986. The Decline of Fertility in Europe.
Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press; and Cleland, John, and Chris Wilson.
1987. "Demand Theories of the Fertility Decline: An Iconoclastic View." Population
Studies 41(1): 5-30.
6. Bongaarts, John, and Susan Cotts Watkins. 1996.
"Social Interactions and Contemporary Fertility Transitions." Population and
Development Review 22(4): 639-682. New York: The Population Council.
7. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. 1998. The Value of
Family Planning Programs in Developing Countries. Santa Monica, California: Rand
Corporation.
8. Even those who note the role of women’s
education, increased communication and mobility and other aspects of social and economic
development recognize the important role of national programmes. See, for example:
Caldwell, John C., et al. 1999. "The Bangladesh Fertility Decline: An
Interpretation." Population and Development Review 22(1): 67-84. New York: The
Population Council.
9. Bongaarts, John. 1999. "The Role of
Family Planning Programs in Contemporary Fertility Transitions." In The Continuing
Demographic Transition, edited by G.W. Jones and J. Caldwell. London: Oxford
University Press.
10. Bongaarts and Watkins 1996.
11. A scientific review of the concept of social
diffusion and its relation to other explanations of demographic transition can be found
in: Reed, Holly, Rona Briere, and John Casterline (eds.). 1999. The Role of Diffusion
Processes in Fertility Change in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop.
Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press; and forthcoming publications of the papers of
the January 1998 workshop sponsored by the Committee on Population of the National Academy
of Science.
12. The Population Division prepares high, medium
and low variant projections which theoretically encompass the plausible range of
demographic outcomes through 2050. While the medium variant is often misrepresented as a
prediction, it is simply the mathematical outcome of a group of assumptions about future
fertility and mortality. Until recently these projections were not accurate more than a
decade or so into the future, and the revisions sometimes result in significantly higher
or lower long-term projections. Nonetheless, the projections serve a useful planning tool
for both national and international population policy and social planning.
13. See: Lutz, Wolfgang, James W. Waupel, and Dennis
A. Ahlburg (eds.). 1999. Frontiers of Population Forecasting. A Supplement to
Volume 24. Population and Development Review. 1998. New York: The Population
Council.
14. Literacy rates are usually derived from data on
self-declared literacy on censuses or from updating census or survey estimates with
current estimates of school enrolment, not criteria-based literacy tests. Although UNESCO
has issued guidelines for estimating literacy levels, international comparability is
affected by differences in methods and completeness of coverage. A full report of
educational statistics, derived from the primary UNESCO and other supplementary data, can
be found in: The World Bank. 1998. World Development Indicators 1998. Washington,
D.C.: The World Bank.
15. Net primary enrolment measures the percentage of
the school-age population that is enroled in primary education. Data are typically
collected at the beginning of each school year; a more accurate measure of participation
rates would require data on daily attendance by age, grade, and gender. Secondary
enrolment figures are likely to be biased upwards, because data are often based on
assumptions about promotion, repetition and attrition rather than actual student records.
(The World Bank 1998, p. 37.)
16. Some sub-regions also experienced enrolment
declines at some grade levels in the 1980s, but did not regress to 1960 levels. See:
United Nations Educational, Social and Cultural Organization. 1998. Trends and
Projections of Enrolment by Level of Education, by Age, and by Sex 1960-2030 (as Assessed
in 1998). Paris: United Nations Educational, Social and Cultural Organization.
17. The Population Council. 1996. The Unfinished
Transition. The Population Council Issues Papers. New York: The Population Council.
18. See: Filmer, Deon, and Lant Pritchett. 1999.
"The Effect of Household Wealth on Educational Attainment: Evidence from 35
Countries." Population and Development Review 25(1): 85-120. New York: The
Population Council.
19. See: Filmer and Pritchett 1999; and Knodel, Johan,
and Gavin Jones. 1996. "Post-Cairo Population Policy: Does Promoting Girls’
Schooling Miss the Mark?" Population and Development Review 22(4): 683-702,
814, 816. New York: The Population Council.
20. For a complete analysis of the statistics and
challenges of adult literacy and education, see: United Nations Educational, Social and
Cultural Organization. 1997a. Adult Education in a Polarizing World. Paris: United
Nations Educational, Social and Cultural Organization.
21. This relationship is regularly graphed in the World
Eduction Report series. See, for example: United Nations Educational, Social and
Cultural Organization. 1997b. World Education Report 1997. Paris: United Nations
Educational, Social and Cultural Organization. See also: Cleland, J., and J. van Ginneken.
1988. "Maternal Education and Child Survival in Developing Countries: The Search for
Pathways of Influence." Social Science and Medicine 27: 1357-1368. An
important early theoretical discussion of the relationships can be found in: Cochrane,
Susan H. 1979. Fertility and Education: What Do We Really Know? Baltimore,
Maryland: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
22. See: Diamond, Ian, Margaret Newby, and Sarah
Varle. "Female Education and Fertility: Examining the Links." In Critical
Perspectives on Schooling and Fertility in the Developing World, edited by Caroline H.
Bledsoe, et al. 1999. Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social
Sciences and Education, National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy
Press.
23. See: Cleland, J., and G. Kaufman. 1993.
"Education, Fertility, and Child Survival: Unravelling the Links." Paper
prepared for the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Committee on
Anthropology and Demography Seminar, Barcelona, Spain, 10-14 November. Liége, Belgium:
International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
24. See, for example: Cochrane, Susan H., M. A. Khan,
and Ibrahim K. T. Osheba. 1990. "Education, Income, and Desired Fertility in Egypt: A
Revised Perspective." Economic Development and Cultural Change 38(2): 313-339.
25. Bledsoe, Caroline H., Jennifer A. Johnson-Kuhn,
and John G. Haaga. "Introduction." In Bledsoe, et al. 1999.
26. A detailed examination of the implications of
population ageing was reported in: UNFPA. 1998. The State of World Population 1998: The
New Generations. New York: UNFPA.
27. Ibid.
28. World Health Organization. 1999. The World
Health Report 1999: Making a Difference. Geneva: World Health Organization.
29. For a good synthesis and overview of demography,
reproductive health and AIDS, see: Goliber, Thomas J. 1997. Population and Reproductive
Health in Sub-Saharan Africa: Population Bulletin 52, No. 4. Washington, D.C.:
Population Reference Bureau.
30. UNFPA. (Forthcoming.) AIDS Update 1998. New
York: UNFPA.
31. Bongaarts, John, and Griffith Feeney. 1998. On
the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. Policy Research Division Working Papers No. 109.
New York: The Population Council.
32. Frejka, Thomas, and John Ross. (Forthcoming.)
"The Course to Below Replacement Fertility: A Review of the Empirical Evidence."
Special Supplement to Population and Development Review on the Demographic
Transition. New York: The Population Council.
33. Such floors have been noted in some Latin American
countries and in Bangladesh (Caldwell, et al. 1999.).
34. For a complete set of global, regional and
national urbanization statistics, see: United Nations. 1998b. World Urbanization
Prospects: The 1996 Revision. New York: Population Division, Department of Economic
and Social Affairs, United Nations. The updated 1998 revision is in preparation.
35. Urbanization trends and implications were the
subject of: UNFPA. 1996. The State of World Population 1996: Changing Places:
Population, Development and the Urban Future. New York: UNFPA.
36. Ibid.
37. United Nations. 1996. Trends in Total Migrant
Stock. Revision 4 (POP/1B/DB/96/1/Rev.4). Database. New York: Population Division,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.
38. Zlotnick, Hania. 1998. "International
Migration Levels, Trends and What Existing Data Systems Reveal." In Technical
Symposium on International Migration and Development. United Nations Task Force on
Basic Social Services for All (BSSA), vol. 1, The Hague, Netherlands, 29 June-3 July 1998.
39. Ibid.
40. Ibid.
41. Malthus, Thomas R. 1798. An Essay on the
Principle of Population. London: Printed for J. Johnson, in St. Paul’s
Church-Yard.
42. Meadows, Donella, et al. 1972. The Limits to
Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New
York: Universe; and Ehrlich, Paul R. 1968. The Population Bomb. New York:
Ballantine.
43. See: "Estimates of Human Carrying Capacity: A
Survey of Four Centuries." In How Many People Can the Earth Support? by Joel
E. Cohen. 1995. New York: Norton & Company.
44. See: Brown, Lester R., Gary Gardner, and Brian
Halweil. 1999. Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge.
Washington: WorldWatch Institute.
45. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
1998. Production, Supply and Distribution (PS&D) (electronic database).
Washington, D.C.: United States Department of Agriculture. See also: Brown, Gardner and
Halweil 1999.
46. See Reid, T.R. 1998. "Feeding the
Planet." National Geographic, No. 4 (October 1998): 56-75.
47. Seckler, David, David Molden, and Randolph Barker.
1999. "Water Scarcity in the Twenty-first Century." International Journal of
Water Resources Development 15(1&2): 29-43. See also: Brown, Gardner and Halweil
1999.
48. de Onis, M., et al. 1998. "The Worldwide
Magniture of Protein-Energy Malnutrition: An Overview from the WHO Global Database on
Child Growth." Geneva: World Health Organization. See also: Brown, Gardner and
Halweil. 1999.
49. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
1998; United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 1991. "World Grain
Database." Unpublished printout. Washington, D.C.: United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA); and United States Bureau of the Census. 1998. International Data
Base (electronic database), updated 30 November 1998. Washington, D.C.: United States
Bureau of the Census.
50. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1990. Climate
Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge
University Press; and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1995. IPCC Working
Group I Summary for Policymakers. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University
Press.
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