| Changing
Distribution of World Population Population growth will be
concentrated in certain regions; elsewhere, human numbers will stablize or even decline.
Within countries, populations will continue to shift from rural to urban areas, while
becoming increasingly older and better educated. Migration between countries will be an
increasingly important factor in international relations and the composition of national
populations.
FIGURE 5
Regional Distribution of
Population, 1950-2050
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Regional Distribution Changing
As the global population has doubled over the past 40 years, the shifts in geographical
distribution of that population have been equally remarkable. In 1960, 2.1 billion of the
world’s 3 billion people lived in less-developed regions (70 per cent of the global
population). By late 1999, the less-developed regions had grown to 4.8 billion (80 per
cent); 98 per cent of the projected growth of the world population by 2025 will occur in
these regions.
Africa, with an average fertility rate exceeding five children per woman during the
entire period, has grown the fastest among regions. There are almost three times as many
Africans alive today (767 million) as there were in 1960. Asia, by far the most populous
region, has more than doubled in size (to over 3.6 billion), as has Latin America and the
Caribbean. In contrast, the population of Northern America has grown by only 50 per cent,
and Europe’s has increased by only 20 per cent and is now roughly stable.
Africa’s share of global population is projected to rise to 20 per cent in 2050
(from only 9 per cent in 1960), while Europe’s share is projected to decline from 20
to 7 per cent over that same period. In 1960 Africa had less than half the population of
Europe; in 2050 it may be approaching three times as many people.
The altered balance of population distribution among regions does not in itself pose a
problem, so long as development progresses everywhere and population growth is balanced by
the development of social and economic capacity. The challenge remains to create
conditions that will enable countries in all regions to adopt policies and strategies that
foster equitable development.
The world’s urban population is
growing by 60 million a year
FIGURE 6
World Urbanization Trends, 1950-2030
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of the chart please click here
Global Trend Towards Urbanization
The movement of people towards cities has accelerated in the past 40 years, particularly
in the less-developed regions, and the share of the global population living in urban
areas has increased from one third in 1960 to 47 per cent (2.8 billion people) in 1999.
The world’s urban population is now growing by 60 million persons per year, about
three times the increase in the rural population.34
Increasing urbanization results about equally from births in urban areas
and from the continued movement of people from the rural surround. These forces are also
feeding the sprawl of urban areas as formerly rural peri-urban settlements become
incorporated into nearby cities and as secondary cities, linked by commerce to larger
urban centres, grow larger.35
The proportion of people in developing countries who live in cities has almost doubled
since 1960 (from less than 22 per cent to more than 40 per cent), while in more-developed
regions the urban share has grown from 61 per cent to 76 per cent. There is a significant
association between this population movement from rural to urban areas and declines in
average family size.
Asia and Africa remain the least urbanized of the developing regions (less than 38 per
cent each). Latin America and the Caribbean is more than 75 per cent urban, a level almost
equal to those in Europe, Northern America and Japan (all are between 75 and 79 per cent).
Urbanization is projected to continue well into the next century. By 2030, it is
expected that nearly 5 billion (61 per cent) of the world’s 8.1 billion people will
live in cities. The less-developed regions will be more than 57 per cent urban. Latin
America and the Caribbean will actually have a greater percentage of inhabitants living in
cities than Europe will.
Cities and towns have become the engines of social change in all regions. Their rapid
growth presents opportunities for future development but also serious challenges. Urban
population growth has outpaced the development of employment, housing, services and the
rest of the social and physical infrastructure. Poverty persists in urban and peri-urban
areas, suggesting a failure of policies to ensure an equitable distribution of the fruits
of development. Numbers of poor women, in particular, have increased, both in urban areas
(where work opportunities remain limited) and in rural areas (where women are increasingly
being left behind by husbands or children seeking urban opportunities).
As people have moved towards and into cities, information has flowed outward. Better
communication and transportation now link urban and rural areas both economically and
socially. The result is that the ecological and sociological "footprint" of
cities has spread over ever-wider areas, creating an urban-rural continuum of communities
that share some aspects of each lifestyle. Fewer and fewer places on the planet are
unaffected by the dynamics of cities.
The spread of mass media has also blurred the rural-urban divide. New ideas, points of
reference, and life possibilities are becoming more widely recognized, appreciated and
sought. This phenomenon has afFected health care, including reproductive health, in many
ways. For instance, radio and television programmes that discuss gender equity, family
size preference and family planning options are now reaching formerly isolated rural
populations. This can create demand for services, higher contraceptive use, and fewer
unwanted pregnancies.36
Globally, the number of cities with 10 million or more inhabitants is increasing
rapidly, and most of these new "megacities" are in the less-developed regions.
In 1960, only New York and Tokyo had more than 10 million people. By 1999, the number of
17, 13 in less-developed regions. It is projected that there will be 26 megacities by
2015, 22 in less-developed regions (18 will be in Asia); more than 10 per cent of the
world’s population will live in these cities, up from just 1.7 per cent in megacities
in 1950.
International Migration
International migration is becoming a more visible and important
issue in international relations and in national self-concepts.
Globally, the number of international migrants increased from 75 million to 120 million
between 1965 and 1990, keeping pace with population growth. As a result, the proportion of
migrants worldwide has remained around 2 per cent of the total population.37 In 1990, international migrants were 4.5
per cent of the population in developed countries and 1.6 per cent in developing
countries.
These global estimates mask important difficulties in measuring migration. Only a
handful of countries regularly count inflows of foreigners and returning citizens, so it
is virtually impossible to make estimates of foreign-born migrants except via periodic
censuses. Migrants sometimes avoid or are neglected by census-takers, and they are counted
or classified in different ways by different countries. Migration is often the result of
conflict, persecution or weather-related hardship, and as a result it fluctuates greatly
from year to year and may be accompanied by chaos, making precise counts difficult.
Virtually all countries have been the destination of some migration in this century of
rapid and universal transportation. Recipient countries for migrants have become more
diverse since 1965, both in terms of the number of migrants they receive and their share
of total population.38 The number of
countries with a migrant population of 300,000 or greater increased by more than 50 per
cent between 1965 and 1990.
The percentage of women migrants has increased in recent decades, to 48
per cent of all international migrants in 1990. 39
Most women who migrate for employment tend to be concentrated in low-status jobs, and many
are particularly vulnerable to exploitation and harassment.
The globalization of capital and trade flows is causing unpredictable changes in the
fortunes of developing countries, as investment capital rapidly moves in and out of
fragile economies. In turn, these movements drive both internal and international
migration. The growing informalization of the economies of many countries has also
intensified the interaction between irregular employmentand irregular migration.
Increased immigration has been recommended by a number of demographers
and economists as a means of balancing the effects of fertility
decline and the resultant ageing of the population. For instance,
a labour shortage in Japan has been met by expanding the number
of foreigners (including descendants of former Japanese emigrants)who
can be admitted to the country. Between1985 and 1995, the legally
resident foreign population in Japan increased by 60 percent, and
the number of undocumented aliens also grew.40
The economic effects of migration run both ways. Throughout the
world, remittances by migrants from more- to less-developed countries
remain an important mechanism through which international migration
influences development.
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