| Demographic Trends More
than in any year since UNFPA started work in 1969, demographic trends are diverse and
diverging.
High fertility: Population is growing fastest in the poorest
countries, those least able to provide for basic needs and create opportunities. Within
countries, the poorest families also tend to be the largest ones, but poverty of choices
may be as important as poverty of means in determining family size. The people and
countries most affected are concentrated in Africa and South Asia, but there are some in
every developing region. The fastest-growing regions of the world are sub-Saharan Africa,
parts of South Asia and West Asia. Their share of the global population has been
increasing steadily for 40 years. These regions are joining other regions in becoming
predominantly urban. There is no sign of a global ‘birth dearth’.
Low fertility: At the same time, 61 countries are seeing fertility at
or below replacement level, and their populations could decline over the long term. As
fertility falls in more countries, this phenomenon could affect countries with as many as
two thirds of the world’s people. There is no sign of a global "birth
dearth", however: births will continue at over 100 million a year for the next 50
years. Deaths will rise during this period as populations become increasingly older.
This slow demographic change calls for policy choices: there will be implications for
the structure of health care, pensions and social security, and for family relationships
and inter-generational responsibility. Low-fertility countries will look to active older
people and immigrants to supply some needed services and contribute to the economy.
One apparent choice, higher birth rates and larger families, is not open to
low-fertility countries. No country in history has ever succeeded in raising birth rates
over a long period once they have started to decline.
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Longer Lives + Falling Birth Rates =
Slower Population Growth
Longer lives mean more people. How will that help to slow population growth?
Better health and longer lifespans encourage the idea that life is an investment, not a
lottery. Experience shows that when people have the choice, they choose smaller families
than previous generations did. When more people can decide how many children to have, the
result is smaller but healthier families, and eventually longer lives and slower
population growth.
If families are smaller, why is population still growing?
Fertility and birth rates have been falling in many countries for a long time. Smaller
families mean lower population growth rates and in the long run smaller annual additions
to world population. Women in developing countries are having half as many children as
their counterparts in 1969.
But there are nearly twice as many women of childbearing age today. Together with
better child survival and extended lifespans, this has kept annual additions to world
population around 80 million a year for the last decade. Annual births will continue near
current levels for much of the next 20 years. |
Rising death rates and shorter life-spans: In the
countries most affected by HIV/AIDS, death rates are rising and life expectancy is falling
fast enough to wipe out the gains of the last 20 years. The published figures are
estimates and may well understate the full impact of the pandemic. Many countries are
still unwilling to acknowledge how seriously they are affected, but in the absence of firm
and immediate action to control the spread of the infection, all the evidence points to a
greater catastrophe. Many of the worst-affected countries are among the poorest in the
world and will depend heavily on outside help to combat the disease.
Population movements: Fluctuations in population growth and location
are features of many countries affected by internal instability, natural disasters and
social disruption. Some countries have experienced a rapid population influx, others a
loss through out-migration, notably in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. This
population loss is probably a short-term phenomenon, but it raises policy questions —
for example, about replacing the skills of migrants. An estimated 13 million refugees have
fled their own countries to escape from persecution, armed conflict or violence. An
unknown but considerable number have been forced to leave for social or environmental
reasons but do not qualify as refugees. Tens of millions are displaced within their own
countries, many swelling the numbers of the urban poor.4
In all regions, international migration is moving nearer to the top of the policy
agenda as the numbers of migrants increase and the issues they raise become more urgent.
Only 2 per cent of the world’s population are migrants. However, their impact on both
sending and receiving countries is out of proportion to their numbers. Migrants send more
than $70 billion to their home countries each year in the form of remittances, and
industries in some host countries depend on the labour and skills of foreign-born workers.
The number of countries contributing to international migration streams has also
increased in recent decades.
Migration within countries also dramatically affects the prospects for national
development and the life condition of millions. Urban growth is fuelled both by natural
population growth in cities and by rural-to-urban migration. In many countries and
regions, urban-to-urban migration and rural-to- rural migration have become significant.
These flows respond to and further contribute to stress on the environment and on service
delivery systems. Older and poorer populations, and particularly older women, are further
marginalized by increased migration from their communities.
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For more information:
United Nations Population Fund
Information and External Relations Division
220 E. 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.
Tel. 212-297-5020; fax: 212-557-6416
E-mail: ryanw@unfpa.org. Web site: www.unfpa.org |
