P R E S S   S U M M A R Y

The demographic transition

European countries went through a gradual transition from high to low fertility and mortality over the past 150 years. The transition is very much faster in today’s developing countries, where improvements in preventive health and medical care in recent decades have dramatically reduced mortality, especially infant mortality, and increased life expectancy.

Fertility has also declined, but much more slowly, resulting in unprecedented population growth and young populations. Since 1960 GDP per capita has tripled and contraceptive use has grown fivefold, from 10-12 per cent of married couples to 60 per cent in 1995.

In some developing countries, mostly in Africa, fertility and mortality are still high, though declining. There, a woman’s chances of dying as a result of pregnancy are more than 1 in 20, life expectancy is below 60 years and 10 per cent of newborns do not survive their first year.

In the least developed countries, 43 per cent of the people are under age 15. In 71 high-fertility countries, more than 40 per cent are under 15. Since 1980 over half of the global increase in adolescents has been in sub-Saharan Africa.

In all developing countries, the proportion of the population aged 15-24 peaked around 1985 at 21 per cent. Between 1995 and 2050, it will decline from 19 to 14 per cent, but actual numbers will grow from 863 million to 1.16 billion.

Children under 15 in developing countries outnumbered people over 65 by nearly 10 to 1 in 1950 —more than double the ratio in the developed countries — and by over 11 to 1 in 1975; the ratio in 1995, though falling, still exceeded 7 to 1.

As a result of reduced fertility and mortality, there will be a gradual demographic shift in all countries over the next few decades towards an older population. The number of people over 65 will grow by about 9 million this year, 14.5 million in 2010 and 21 million in 2050. By 2050, 97 per cent of the growth of older populations will be in today’s developing regions (more than one quarter will be in India), compared to 77 per cent now.

In developed countries, the proportion of people over 65 has increased from 8 to 14 per cent since 1950, and is expected to reach 25 per cent by 2050. Within the next 35 years, the elderly will approach or exceed 30 per cent of the populations in Japan, Germany and Italy. In some countries, populations above age 85 will more than double.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of people over 65 will rise from 23 million in 1995 to 61 million in 2025. Due to continued high fertility, however, their proportion in the population will only increase from 3.2 per cent to 4.2 per cent.

In a growing number of countries, couples are having fewer children than the two they need to "replace" themselves in the population. But even if "replacement fertility" were reached immediately, populations would continue to grow for several decades because of the large numbers of people now entering their reproductive years. (See press feature, "Era of Rapid Population Growth Is Not Over".)

This "momentum" will account for up to two thirds of the projected growth of world population, more in countries where fertility declines have been fastest. Raising mothers’ age at first birth from 18 to 23 would reduce population momentum by over 40 per cent.

In countries that have already reached replacement fertility, an influx of migrant workers could ease the labour force decline and alleviate pressures on social security systems.

Population programmes have played a significant role since the 1960s in enabling couples to choose smaller families. Many national programmes need to expand to meet the demand for family planning and reproductive health care and to improve the quality of services offered.

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