THE STATE OF WORLD POPULATION 1998

THE NEW GENERATIONS

Rapid Growth of Older Populations
Calls for Thoughtful Planning

In the next 50 years, the proportion of people over age 65 will more than double, growing from 6.8 per cent of the global population to 15.1 per cent. In Western Europe, more than one person in four (27.5 per cent) will be over 65 in 2050.

There will be many more people over 65 in 2050 than ever before — 1.42 billion, according to the United Nations’ medium-term (most likely) projections. That is three and a half times as many as today, and over 10 times as many as in 1950.

This growth will severely test the ability of families and societies to provide the financial, medical and social support older people will need. But the "new generation"of elderly people will also be healthier, better educated and more productive than its predecessors, notes The State of World Population 1998 report from the United Nations Population Fund.

The UNFPA report looks at some of the consequences of population ageing, even as popula-tions overall continue to increase and greater numbers of young people enter their childbearing and working years. The report calls for a re-examination of the contract of mutual support between the generations, and stresses that investments in the well-being of both young and old will benefit society as a whole.

Life expectancy in developing countries has increased sharply in the past 50 years, from 40.1 years in 1950 to 62.1 today for men, and from 41.8 to 65.2 for women; it is projected to rise to 73.2 for men and 77.8 for women by 2045. The number of years a person can expect to remain healthy and active has also risen.

Life expectancy is lowest — 50.9 for men and 53.0 for women — in the least developed countries, where infant mortality remains high. These countries must deal simultaneously with continued high fertility and growing older populations.

Changes in lifestyles have been just as dramatic as gains in life expectancy. Relations between adult children and their parents are becoming more varied with increasing urbanization, mobility and incomes; and older people are increasingly choosing greater independence in living arrangements. Nearly seven out of ten older persons in developing countries still live in households with younger family members, but the numbers of those living alone or only with a spouse are rising. A growing number of middle-aged people do not expect to live with or to be supported by their children when they are older.

An exception to this trend is found in Thailand, where most people still expect to receive family support in their old age despite a steep fall in family size over the past three decades. Interviews also show that many Thai parents — like growing numbers of parents elsewhere — feel that investing in the health and education of fewer children offers a better guarantee of later support than having large families.

In the next generation there will be fewer children to support their elderly parents and smaller extended family networks. Families will have more older members, and many will have both older and younger dependants at the same time.

Formal and informal support systems for the elderly are becoming more important as the role of families decreases.

Longer life expectancy and earlier retirement mean that a greater portion of life is now spent in retirement than ever before. But for most older people in developing countries the concept of retirement has little meaning, because they do not have formal jobs or pensions. They must work to support themselves.

Some 155 countries now have some form of public systems for old age, disability or survivor support, though their coverage varies greatly and they reach only 30 per cent of the world’s people over 60. Some 40 per cent of the working-age population contributes to that support.

Retirement schemes and the expected duration of retirement in developing countries vary greatly. Chile’s privatized pension system is being used as a model by others. Provident funds, in which compulsory deductions from wages go into publicly managed investments, are a key component of retirement programmes in a number of Asian and Latin American countries. Such programmes will become increasingly important as elderly populations increase, the UNFPA report notes. Community care institutions and outreach programmes for the elderly will also become more critical.

In most developed countries, private, volunteer organizations supplement public support for the elderly, operating day-centres and clinics and assisting with meals, transportation, shopping, household chores and simple medical services. In some developing countries, local organizations supported by international NGOs like HelpAge International and the American Association of Retired Persons are helping to develop similar community services.

Ageing and gender

Women live longer than men on average, and they are a majority of older populations in most countries. Older women bear the burden of negative perceptions, and face social and economic discrimination. They are more likely than men to be poor and illiterate. Yet policy makers too often neglect the issues affecting older women, the UNFPA report emphasizes.

Women widowed at any age tend to stay single longer than men. Widows over 60 greatly outnumber widowers — by as much as 5 to 1 in Bangladesh and much of Africa. Widows who have no married sons may be left with little support because of discriminatory practices that limit their inheritance and property rights or access to pensions; this discrimination must be eliminated, the report states.

Health policies often fail to address the particular concerns of older women, who average more years of ill health than older men — due to biological factors, compounded by a lifetime of inadequate access to basic services, food and nutrition, and the hardships of their childbearing years. The report points out the need for more research, for example, on menopause and its consequences, and for improved data collection and analysis using indicators that will accurately measure gender differences in health status.

More generally with regard to health, the report notes that as populations age, the burden of disease will shift from infectious to non-communicable and chronic diseases. But according to the report, this does not justify extensive reorientation of publicly funded health services in developing countries. There will continue to be an urgent need to improve services for poorer and less healthy people of all ages, who include disproportionate numbers of women and rural populations, as well as older people. Efforts to reduce health disparities and ensure quality health care for all throughout the life cycle will have the most beneficial impact, the report concludes.

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