PRESS
RELEASE
The ICPD+5 review
process
China's Elderly Need an
Insurance System on Scale of Great Wall, ICPD+5 Meeting
Told
BRUSSELS, 8 October 1998 -- China urgently needs
to establish a universal old-age insurance system and other family
support services to respond to its rapid population ageing, UNFPA's
Technical Meeting on Population Ageing was told today. Such an
undertaking would be on the scale of building a new Great Wall of
China, according to Zeng Yi, a professor at Peking University's
Institute of Population Research.
Mr. Zeng was speaking on
economic policy implications of an older society, the theme of
today's session. Papers were presented on population ageing,
economic growth and intergenerational transfers; private versus
public pension schemes; and policy issues on the employment of the
elderly.
The four-day Technical Meeting on Population and
Ageing, which will end on 9 October, is part of "ICPD+5", the review
of the achievements of the 1994 Cairo International Conference on
Population and Development (ICPD). Organized by UNFPA and the
Population and Family Study Centre, a Flemish Scientific Institute
in Brussels, it is reviewing the experiences of the developed
countries in population to identify lessons and best practices that
can be adopted by developing nations. It will appraise the
implementation of the ICPD Programme of Action and identify key
actions needed to meet older persons' needs.
Elaborating
options in ageing and policy trade-offs in his country at today's
session, Mr. Zeng said that a successful effort to set up an old age
insurance scheme in China, which accommodates more than one-fifth of
the world's population, would help many other countries similarly
facing rapid population ageing.
The professor said population
ageing in China has six main features. They include a very high
speed of ageing; very large quantity of the elderly; very rapid
increase of ‘oldest old' in the next century; ageing being more
serious in villages; consequent changes in family household
structure; and coexistence of rapid population growth and low per
capita gross national product.
In China, he said, people aged
65 and above will account for a quarter of the population by 2050.
It will take China only a few decades to go through a transition
that European societies underwent in 100 to 200 years. The number of
older persons could reach 232-331 million between 2030 and 2050. In
1990 there were about 8 million "oldest old" over age 80; their
number could increase to 60-160 million in the same
years.
James Schultz, an economist from Brandeis University
in the United States, made a presentation on the economic
implications of ageing. He said that many respected economists and
institutions are making gloomy predictions based on flawed
assumptions.
"There have been all sorts of demographic
statistics presented in population ageing discussions. Most are
worthless in assessing the economic impact of an ageing population,"
he declared. In the United States, he noted, the retired "baby boom"
generation and their children in 2030 are likely to share a per
capita income (inflation adjusted) that is three times greater that
of 1964.
In discussing such factors as the quality of labour,
worker interaction with technological change and savings/investment
rates, the economist challenged a number of assumptions. For
instance, there is much research that calls into question the
presumption that older workers generally are less productive than
their younger counterparts. Many older workers find ways to
compensate for functional limitations or mental and physical
declines that sometimes occur as people age, he said.
"We
find the issues, problems and challenges of population ageing to be
many," Mr. Schultz concluded. "But we also find the future prospects
to be not as bleak as others picture them. There is no
crisis."
Jorge Bravo of the Population Division of the
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean said
discussions on pension policies will become more important as
populations age and the effects on public budgets are felt more
sharply. Studies into the intergenerational distribution effects of
public and private pension systems will become more useful in
informing on the financial and other consequences of policy options
in various countries.
The first public pension system dates
back to the end of the 19th century in Europe, and public systems
became common only after the Second World War, Mr. Bravo said.
Before then, support for the elderly was normally provided by
families, communities and market mechanisms. The number of public
pension systems has risen from about 30 in 1940 to some 100 by 1970
and more than 150 by the mid-1990s. Populations covered by the
systems vary from single-digit percentages in some African States to
virtually complete coverage in developed nations. Asia and Latin
America show a wide range of variation in coverage, from little more
than 20 per cent in China, to nearly universal in Cuba and Brazil,
he said.
After the presentation and discussion of papers, the
participants listened to a panel presentation on perspectives on key
policy issues regarding the elderly.
The current meeting is being held a week after this year's
International Day of Older Persons, during which the United Nations
declared 1999 the International Year of Older Persons. Ageing also
is one of the main themes of UNFPA's flagship publication, The State of World
Population 1998, entitled "The New Generations".
(For information purposes only. Not an official
document.)
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