| Population Trends: World Population Still Growing
We are living in a world of unprecedented demographic change and diversity. After growing very slowly for most of human history, the world’s population more than doubled in the last half century to reach 6 billion in late 1999. In mid-2005, 6.5 billion people shared the planet, 380 million more than in 2000. Some 76 million people are added to the world’s population every year. Lower mortality, longer life expectancy and a larger base of people participating in reproduction (population momentum), as people live longer and healthier lives, partly explain the rapid population growth of recent decades.
According to 2004 estimates by the population division of the UN Secretariat, despite declining fertility rates, world population is expected to rise in the next 45 years by 2.6 billion, to reach a total of 9.1 billion in 2050. Nearly all of the growth will take place in the less developed countries, and will be concentrated among the poorest populations in urban areas.
The population of the 50 poorest countries is projected to more than double by 2050, and to at least triple in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Timor-Leste and Uganda. Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest region, is the fastest growing, despite increasing population losses from AIDS deaths.
By contrast, the overall population of the more developed countries is likely to show little change over the next 45 years, remaining at about 1.2 billion. The population of Germany, Italy, Japan and most of the successor states of the former Soviet Union is expected to be lower in 2050 than it is today.
People want and are having smaller families. This trend has been greatly helped by the wider availability of high quality, safe and affordable family planning services—and easier access to them, especially for women. Still, many people are having more children than they want to: 350 million couples worldwide lack access to the full range of modern family planning methods, and as many as 137 million women would like to prevent or delay pregnancy but are not using any method of family planning.
Future population growth depends on how small families will become. Fertility rates are continuing to drop at the world level:
- In 1950-1955, the average woman had 5 children.
- In 2000-2005, the worldwide fertility rate was 2.65 children per woman.
- In 2050, it is expected to be slightly over 2 children per woman.
The fertility decline not withstanding, and even if fertility rates are lower than projected, the large proportion of young people still makes population growth until 2050 virtually inevitable. In fact, an increase in fertility of only half a child per woman above the projected level would add 1.5 billion more people to the world’s population by 2050, for a total of 10.6 billion.
Though fertility is declining overall, trends vary significantly in different parts of the world:
- In the more developed world, fertility is currently 1.56 children per woman and is projected to increase slowly to 1.84 by 2050.
- A total of 43 developed countries already have fertility rates of below replacement level.
- 15 countries, mostly in Southern and Eastern Europe, have reached unprecedented low levels of fertility, below 1.3 children per woman.
- In the 50 least developed countries, fertility is 5 children on average per woman and is expected to drop by about half, to 2.57 children per woman by 2050.
- In the rest of the developing world, fertility is already moderately low at 2.58 children per woman. It is expected to decline to 1.92 by mid-century, bringing it close to levels typical of developed countries. In fact, fertility has already reached below-replacement levels in 23 developing countries, including China, whose current fertility level is estimated at 1.7.
Countries where fertility has fallen will see a dramatic ageing of their populations in coming decades, a trend well under way in developed countries.
International migration to more developed regions is increasing and is having an important impact on population trends. Between 2005 and 2050, the net number of migrants to developed countries is expected to reach 98 million, and in 28 countries, including Austria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Qatar, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom, migration will either prevent population decline or cause an increase in population. The rate of urbanization is increasing, as many internal and international migrants are moving to cities. By 2007, half the world’s population will be living in cities; by 2030 some 60 per cent will be urban.
The 20th century witnessed the most rapid decline in mortality in human history. A person born in 1955, according to the worldwide average, could expect to live to be 47. Global life expectancy at birth today is 65, and is expected to keep on rising to reach 75 by 2050. In the more developed countries, the projected increase is from 76 today to 82 by mid-century.
The lives of people in the least developed countries, however, are being cut short by poverty, armed conflict and disease. A child born today in the 50 poorest countries can expect to live on average to 51, and life expectancy by 2050 is expected to be only 66.5. In the rest of the developing world, life expectancy is projected to rise to be closer to that of developed countries, from just under 66 today to 76 by mid-century. Overall figures on life expectancy in developed countries mask some striking regional differences: there have been increases in mortality and a severe decline in life expectancy in Eastern Europe since the late 1980s, particularly in the Russian Federation and the Ukraine. In 2005, life expectancy in Eastern Europe was 66.6, lower than it was in 1955.
Better life expectancy in the poorest countries depends on the implementation of effective programmes to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS. AIDS has killed some 20 million people since 1981; 3.1 million people died in 2004. Today 39.4 million are HIV-positive, the highest level ever. In 2004 alone, 4.9 million people were newly infected. Women are increasingly at risk.
The AIDS pandemic has had an impact on life expectancy and population growth, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where it is most prevalent:
- In sub-Saharan Africa, life expectancy declined precipitously from 62 in the first half of the 1990s to 48 just ten years later. It is projected to decrease even further to 43 over the next decade before a slow recovery starts.
- Botswana’s life expectancy decline is among the most alarming: with more than a third of the population infected with HIV in 2003, life expectancy has fallen from 65 to 37 in less than two decades.
- As a result of AIDS, population growth in the region will slow down in the next 15 years. In Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland, the population will actually decrease, as deaths outnumber births.
In most of the other developing countries affected by the pandemic, population will continue to grow, as moderate or high fertility will outweigh the rise in mortality.
The number of people living with HIV has been rising in every region, with the steepest increases in East Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia:
- In East Asia, the number of people who are HIV-positive rose by almost 50 per cent between 2002 and 2004, an increase that is attributed largely to China’s growing epidemic.
- In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, there were 40 per cent more people living with HIV in 2004 than in 2002.
The AIDS epidemic is increasingly affecting women and girls. Globally, just under half of all people living with HIV are female. In sub-Saharan Africa, 76 per cent of young people 15–24 years old living with HIV are female.
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